NBA Draft Tip - Trade Down

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Who should your team pick?

Who will be available?

Should we take the best player on the board or the position we need?

All great questions and every team in the NBA is different in terms of how they go about tackling this issue and then actually executing come draft night.  Chad Ford of ESPN does a great job and has written about this topic in the past so I’ve included his information here as another way for people to think about the draft.

I’ve written previously on Raptors Republic that I think this year would be a good time to consider trading down to make the most of the draft, get your guy and come away with another pick or a veteran player as well. According to Ford and his tiers, there is a consensus amongst NBA teams that four players (Griffin - T1, Rubio, Harden, & Thabeet - T2) who are the top picks in the draft. After that Tier 3 includes six and Tier 4 a whopping 14 players, thus 20 guys could go anywhere from #5 to #24 in the draft, which is exactly why I say trading down is a smart consideration.

Obviously each individual team will have their own rank and opinion on these players and that is a big factor as well, who has done the most work evaluating these guys.  The other thing that needs to be considered is the direction of the franchise at that pick.  Are you trying to win now or are you into developing young players and willing to wait?  What kind of assets do you have to work with?  Such as, total draft picks, salary cap status, free-agents on your roster, trade options and so on.

So let’s use the Raptors as our example, and let’s assume those top 4 guys are gone:

The Raps are choosing at #9

Needs:

  1. SF
  2. SG
  3. PG
  4. PF
  5. C

Of the players listed in Fords Tier 3, the Raps would rank them in this order:

DeMar DeRozan

Tyreke Evans

Stephen Curry

Jrue Holiday

Jonny Flynn

Jordan Hill

and you would take the best player on that list from top to bottom giving preference to position within the tier group.

TRADE DOWN

The reason I’d trade down is because I personally wouldn’t want to wait on DeRozan or Holiday to develop, I want to win now and like some of the guys in his 4th Tier better, so I’d trade my 9th for a lower 1st rouner and a veteran backup or a 2nd round pick and select a swing guy in the 11-18 range such as Terrence Williams, Gerald Henderson, Earl Clark, James Johnson, or Sam Young and get better overall value.

That’s just me…what would you do?

-Chris Denker

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  1. khandor says:
    June 19, 2009 at 6:46 pm

    If the Raptors can trade down, Derrick Brown is a name which should then be at the top of their list of possible draftees.

    Derrick/SF [6-8, 225] has a solid chance of becoming a very good NBA player.

    As far as a 2nd Rounder goes … the Raptors should be looking at Marcus Thornton [OG], who also has a solid shot at becoming a very good starting player in the NBA, plus Taj Gibson, Dante Cunningham, and Nando De Colo.

  2. maputo88 says:
    June 19, 2009 at 9:26 pm

    Im surprised no one has mentioned this Hollinger post from today. As a Vancouver guy, I tremble at the thought that we will get another stromile Swift or Joey Graham on the Raptors. Please Raps go for BB IQ. Look at the role players from the Orlando Magic and LA Lakers - all smart players, making the most of their physical abilities. Stay away from DeMar DeRozan - hate the name - and go for an overachiever
    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-090618

  4. cberman says:
    June 19, 2009 at 11:42 pm

    We like Derrick Brown a lot. He has a 7′2″ wingspan, is athletic and strong. Needs to improve his range but so do a lot of other guys. He’d be a good pick in the later part of the 1st round and a steal in the second. We like Thornton too, He can score both from distance and off the dribble. A little undersized for an NBA 2 guard but he’s got a decent chance. Another really good pick in the second round if he gets that far down. We like Gibson in the second round and Nando De Colo is the best name in the draft which is worth something.

  5. toshmon says:
    June 20, 2009 at 10:05 pm

    no way you trade down!!!! imagine the lakers traded down instead of drafting kobe?….no, not this year you gotta take a chance with the 9th pick…your right, it can be to your advantage to trade down but you can ruin the team if one of these top ten picks turns into a franchise player!

    we can’t take that chance…i REALLY dont think it will happen, they might buy a late pick but thats all, the rewards arn’t worth the risk

  7. cdenker says:
    June 22, 2009 at 9:55 am

    Thanks for the comments. I’d like to respond to the one thing you said that is why I recommend trading down as an option and that is where you said
    “IF one of these top ten picks turns into a franchise player” and the problem there is you are picking #9 of those “top ten picks” and the word IF cannot enter
    the conversation. You knew Kobe was a star, to this degree? No. But there weren’t any ifs, only do you want to wait while he grows up and becomes that player?
    In my opinion, these young guys who seem to be mentioned in the top ten of some mock drafts are full of IFs.

    In fairness to you, let me also say this, perhaps in your scouting and evaluation (let’s pretend you are the President or GM of your NBA team) you have determined that
    Player A (DeRozan, Evans, Holiday, Other) is YOUR GUY and he is going to be a STAR without a doubt. Then you have to stick to your guns and go with the pick and believe you are making the right choice. I said in an earlier post, if you feel like your guy is going to be there at the # then you make the pick.

    And I suppose with either view, only time will tell!
    Enjoy the Draft,
    Chris

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